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International trade
The Junta del Acuerdo de Cartagena stimulating international trade (MEGA)

•  What are the trends of the development of international trade flows, at the aggregate level and in specific sectoral product and service classes? What policies can stimulate international trade?
•  What are the trends of the different national markets? Can they develop in a harmonised more integrated way?
•  What are the sensitivities to relative price changes and qualitative changes compared to the other competitors?
•  What are the impacts of the removal of barriers to trade and tariffs

Benefits for Customers

•  Quantified justifications of trade barrier removals and market opening policy formulation for the Common Market Organizations of the European Community, the Grupo Andino, International Aid Organizations.).
•  Motivated and consistent trade forecasts, responses to market changes and investments

Work done

•  Construction of the MEGA ( Modelo Econometrico del Grupo Andino) model, five macro-economic models linked with bilateral trade flows.
•  Construction of an econometric bilateral trade flow models , including demand (in function of relative prices.), supply (in function of spare production capacities, technologies, profitability.) and a bilateral unit export price model (in function of unit costs and competitors prices on each national market).
•  Project alternative scenarios for given sets of tariffs, disinvestments and investments, .
•  The scientific methodologies used are crucial. See section Our Expertise.
•  Report: MEGA.pdf .

•  Article with A. Italianer and P. Zagamé , the HERMES model for the member states of the European Community, in «  HERMES : harmonised econometric research for modeling economic systems  ». Ed. by the Commission of the European Communities, North-Holland, 1993, p. 15-74.
•  Report in Jacques Delors , préface, « 1992. Le Défi. Nouvelles données économiques de l'Europe sans frontières  ». Étude dite «  Cost of Non-Europe  » coordonnée par P.Cecchini. Préparation de simulations macroéconomiques permettant l'évaluation de l'impact de l'achèvement du marché intérieur à l'aide du modèle HERMES , ESTARTE asbl. Flammarion, 1988.
•  Article with A.Italianer , Integrated economic and energy modeling: HERMES , a harmonized European research into macro-sectoral economic and energy systems. In «  Vierteljahrshefte zür Wirtschaftsforschung , 3  », Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, 1986.
•  Articulo con Juan Ter Wengel , Modelo Econometrico del Grupo Andino ( MEGA ). In «  Modelos macroeconometricos en el Peru : nuevos aportes  ». Ed. by German Alarco, Centro de Investigación Universidad del Pacífico, Lima, Peru, 1986.
•  Article with A. Italianer , Modeling bilateral sectoral trade flows. In «  International macroeconomic modeling for policy Decisions  » ed. By P. Artus and O. Guvenen , M. Nijhoff Publ. Dordrecht, 1986.
•  Bauwens Luc and d'Alcantara Gonzales. - An export model for the Belgian industry. In «European economic review22», 1983, p. 265-276.
•  Report with A. Italianer , « European project for a multinational macrosectoral model ». MS11, Commission of the E. C., Luxembourg, 1982 (second reference about the HERMES project).
•  Report with Jean-Paul Lambert and Erik Geyskens , PLANET , a model for the less developing countries and the European Community. CORE, Louvain la Neuve, nov. 1981.
•  Report «  European project for a multinational macro-sectoral model  ». Commission of the EEC, DG XII, MS2, 1980 (first reference about the HERMES project).
•  with Barten Anton P. - Models of bilateral trade flows , in «Quantitative wirtschaftsforschung, W. Krelle zum 60 geburtstag», ed. by H. Albach, E. Helmstadter, T. Henn, J. Mohr, 1977, p. 43-57.

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